In the FCS Huddle: QB openings not for the faint of heart

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You don't have to be Tim Tebow to be the most scrutinized quarterback around.

The light in the microscope usually shines brightest on any team's signal- caller.

Considering big expectations follow the sport's marquee position, it only intensifies for the quarterback who is replacing a highly accomplished senior.

Such situations will be prevalent this coming season across the Football Championship Subdivision.

There are some big shoes to fill nationally.

Whoever steps in for Bo Levi Mitchell at Eastern Washington faces one of the more daunting tasks. Mitchell, of course, was the Most Outstanding Player in the Eagles' 2010 FCS championship game win and captured the 2011 Walter Payton Award (sponsored by Fathead.com) as the nation's outstanding player.

His successor, who is trying to replace Mitchell's 7,505 passing yards and 70 touchdown passes of the last two seasons, could be either junior Anthony Vitto or redshirt freshman Vernon Adams.

Vitto has more experience in offensive coordinator Aaron Best's system and holds the top spot going into spring practice in late March, but Adams is more mobile - he passed for 5,234 yards and rushed for another 1,263 yards in his final two high school seasons - and was the scout team's offensive player of the year this past season.

The situation could change if Kyle Padron, who unseated Mitchell as SMU's starting quarterback in 2009, comes to EWU. The big Texan (6-foot-4, 233 pounds) is seeking to transfer from SMU and is expected to visit with the Eagles' program.

Lehigh's Chris Lum tied for second behind Mitchell in the Payton Award voting and his replacement is much more set with senior Mike Colvin. He has good size - 6-foot-2 and 230 pounds - with excellent arm strength. He already has played in 22 career games, often as a change of pace run/pass-option quarterback.

Colvin has rushed for seven touchdowns in his career, although he struggled in his only career start, replacing an injured Lum in a game at New Hampshire two years ago.

Northern Iowa's Jared Lanpher played well against Youngstown State last season - throwing for 238 yards and two touchdowns - when he started in place of an injured Tirrell Rennie. The redshirt sophomore saw action in four other games and could have the inside track to replacing Rennie this coming season, although redshirt freshman Sawyer Kollmorgan has also impressed coaches since he arrived on campus.

At Chattanooga, quarterback B.J. Coleman hopes to be NFL-bound, but he missed a lot of time as a senior because of a shoulder injury. It opened the door for Terrell Robinson to replace him and win Southern Conference Freshman of the Week honors three times last season. He's a run-first quarterback, having rushed for 417 yards and thrown for only 336 yards.

Robinson will have competition from redshirt freshman Jacob Huesman, son of Mocs head coach Russ Huesman. His playing style is similar to Robinson's.

New Liberty head coach Turner Gill has to replace do-everything quarterback Mike Brown. The most experienced of the Flames' returnees is redshirt senior Tyler Brennan, who has appeared in 22 career games - often in mop-up time - but was injured during the second half of last season. He's more of a drop- back passer than the dual-threat Brown.

Redshirt junior Brian Hudson is also a pocket passer and has the strongest arm among the signal-callers. Still another of Brown's possible successors, redshirt sophomore Gabe Henderson, follows the Brown script in that he was a wide receiver in 2010 - catching 10 passes - before transitioning to a quarterback last year, when he was a redshirt.

Josh Woodrum, coming off his redshirt freshman season, has the high school accolades, though not the experience of his Liberty teammates.

Jackson State signed one the FCS' top incoming freshmen last week in Lamontiez Ivy out of East St. Louis. He will get a shot at replacing Casey Therriault, although 6-5 redshirt senior Dedric McDonald has been the backup for two years and redshirt sophomore Tevin Chapman is a good runner who is also experienced in the system.

Jacksonville has to replace Josh McGregor, who ended his career 23rd on the all-time FCS list with 11,230 passing yards and sixth in touchdown passes with 111. Trevius Folston and Kade Bell are returning, but a signee or two will join them at the Pioneer Football League power.

The 6-7 Folston backed up McGregor as a freshman last season, while Bell, the son of Jacksonville head coach Kerwin Bell, redshirted in his first season.

Plenty of other FCS programs are looking for a new starting quarterback after losing a key senior. Included are New Hampshire (Kevin Decker), Central Arkansas (Nathan Dick), Norfolk State (Chris Walley), Georgia Southern (Jaybo Shaw), Richmond (Aaron Corp) and Wofford (Mitch Allen).

Also, there's Holy Cross (Ryan Taggart), Samford (Dustin Taliaferro), Furman (Chris Forcier), Indiana State (Ronnie Fouch), Maine (Warren Smith), Portland State (Connor Kavanaugh), Southeast Missouri State (Matt Scheible), South Dakota (Dante Warren), Brown (Kyle Newhall-Caballero), Yale (Patrick Witt) and Butler (Andrew Huck).

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FOOTBALL BETTING

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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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